Model Misspecification

Definition

Occurring when the mathematical framework underlying a financial product fails to capture the stochastic realities of the underlying asset, this state undermines the reliability of derivatives pricing. In the volatile environment of cryptocurrency, this often manifests as a divergence between theoretical option values and empirical market behavior due to fat-tailed distributions. Traders encounter this failure when standard assumptions, such as constant volatility or log-normal price movement, prove insufficient for modeling digital asset microstructure.