Behavioral Heuristic

Assumption

Market participants frequently rely on mental shortcuts when navigating the high-frequency volatility inherent in cryptocurrency derivatives. These cognitive biases manifest as an uncritical acceptance of past price patterns as reliable predictors for future directional movement. Traders often mistake historical correlations for causal links, leading to an over-reliance on simplified models during periods of market stress. This tendency diminishes the rigor of quantitative risk assessment by embedding subjective expectations directly into the underlying strategy.