Log-Normal Distribution
The log-normal distribution describes a variable whose logarithm is normally distributed. In finance, this is used to model asset prices because prices cannot drop below zero, making them skewed toward the positive side.
The Black-Scholes option pricing model assumes that the underlying asset prices follow a log-normal distribution. This assumption allows for the calculation of option values based on the expected growth of the asset.
However, in crypto markets, this model often underestimates the probability of large downward moves. Understanding the log-normal distribution is vital for grasping the mathematical foundations of derivatives, even if it must be modified for the specific volatility characteristics of digital assets.
It provides the framework for modeling geometric Brownian motion in price paths.