Research Methodology Flaws

Assumption

Research methodology flaws frequently originate from unverified assumptions regarding market efficiency within cryptocurrency, options, and derivatives trading; these often involve the presumption of Gaussian distributions for price changes, neglecting the observed fat tails and skewness common in these asset classes. Furthermore, assuming constant volatility or correlation between assets introduces significant error, particularly during periods of market stress or rapid innovation in the underlying technology. The reliance on historical data as a proxy for future performance, without accounting for structural breaks or regime shifts, represents a critical limitation in predictive modeling.