Ergodic Systems

Assumption

Ergodic systems operate under the premise that time averages of a process are identical to ensemble averages. Within cryptocurrency markets, this implies that a single portfolio trajectory over a long duration will eventually mirror the statistical properties of all possible market states. Traders often incorrectly assume ergodicity when applying standard mean-reversion models to crypto assets, ignoring the reality that non-ergodic processes frequently lead to ruin regardless of theoretical long-term expected returns.