Term Structure Analysis
Term structure analysis involves evaluating the prices of futures contracts with different expiration dates to understand market expectations. By plotting these prices, traders create a forward curve that provides insights into whether the market expects prices to rise or fall.
In contango, the curve slopes upward, suggesting future price increases; in backwardation, it slopes downward, suggesting scarcity or near-term price strength. This analysis helps traders identify anomalies in pricing across the curve, allowing for calendar spread trading where a trader buys one contract and sells another with a different maturity.
The term structure is heavily influenced by interest rates, storage costs, and investor sentiment. It is a powerful tool for forecasting market trends and positioning portfolios to benefit from changes in the market environment.
Understanding the term structure is essential for advanced derivative strategies.