Stochastic Processes
A stochastic process is a mathematical framework used to describe the evolution of a system over time, where the future state involves an element of randomness. In quantitative finance, these processes model asset price paths as a sequence of random variables.
Geometric Brownian Motion is a common stochastic process used to model the price of underlying assets in derivative pricing models like Black-Scholes. These models assume that price changes are continuous and follow a specific probability distribution.
By understanding the underlying stochastic process, traders can better estimate the likelihood of an asset returning to its mean. It allows for the calculation of probabilities for various price outcomes, which is critical for risk assessment and portfolio management.
These models form the backbone of modern derivative pricing and risk management strategies.