Stochastic Process
A stochastic process is a mathematical framework used to describe the evolution of a system whose future states are subject to random variation. In finance, it is essential for modeling the unpredictable movement of asset prices over time.
Unlike deterministic models, stochastic processes account for the inherent randomness found in market participants' behavior and external news shocks. These models allow quantitative analysts to calculate the probability distribution of future price outcomes.
In the context of options trading, stochastic processes like Geometric Brownian Motion are used to price derivatives by simulating potential price paths. They help in understanding the volatility surface and the likelihood of hitting specific strike prices.
By incorporating random variables, these processes provide a more realistic representation of financial reality. They are foundational for risk management and the design of complex financial instruments.