Skewness and Kurtosis
Skewness and kurtosis are statistical measures used to describe the shape of a probability distribution, which is crucial for modeling asset returns. Skewness measures the asymmetry of the returns; in crypto, this is often negative, indicating a higher probability of large downward moves.
Kurtosis measures the thickness of the tails, or the likelihood of extreme outliers. Together, these metrics allow traders to move beyond simple models that assume a normal distribution and instead use models that reflect the true, complex nature of crypto price action.
High kurtosis implies a greater risk of tail events, while significant skewness indicates a bias in the market's expectations. Incorporating these into pricing models leads to more accurate valuations of out-of-the-money options and better risk management.
They are essential for understanding the underlying risk profile of any derivative position.