Simulation Convergence Analysis
Simulation convergence analysis is the process of determining how many iterations are required in a Monte Carlo simulation to reach a stable and accurate result. As the number of simulations increases, the error in the estimate decreases, following the law of large numbers.
Convergence analysis helps ensure that the results are not just artifacts of random noise but are statistically significant representations of the model. In high-stakes crypto derivatives, where precision is needed for pricing and margin calculations, this analysis is mandatory.
It balances the need for computational speed with the requirement for accuracy. By monitoring the variance of the estimate as iterations increase, developers can determine when the simulation is reliable enough for use.
It is a technical safeguard in quantitative finance.