Model Risk
Model risk is the potential for financial loss resulting from errors in the development, implementation, or use of quantitative models. In the fast-paced world of crypto-derivatives, model risk is elevated due to the reliance on complex code and the assumption that historical data will predict future outcomes.
If a model is built on flawed assumptions, such as a normal distribution of returns, it can lead to catastrophic mispricing and unexpected losses. Mitigating model risk requires rigorous backtesting, independent validation, and constant monitoring of the model's performance in live markets.
It is an essential aspect of professional risk management, especially when dealing with programmable money and decentralized protocols. Failing to account for model risk is a common precursor to protocol insolvency.