GARCH Models
Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models are statistical tools used to estimate and forecast volatility in financial time series. They are particularly effective for capturing the clustering of volatility, where large changes in price are followed by more large changes.
Options traders use GARCH models to price derivatives more accurately by incorporating the dynamic nature of market risk. In cryptocurrency, these models help analysts account for the regime-shifting behavior of digital assets.
They require historical data to calibrate parameters, which then inform future risk projections. While powerful, GARCH models are limited by their reliance on past patterns, which may not always hold in black swan events.
They remain a staple in the quantitative finance toolkit for risk management.