# Value at Risk Simulation ⎊ Area ⎊ Resource 1 --- ## What is the Calculation of Value at Risk Simulation? Value at Risk simulation, within cryptocurrency, options, and derivatives, quantifies potential loss over a defined time horizon under normal market conditions. It employs statistical modeling, often utilizing historical price data and volatility estimates, to project maximum probable loss for a given portfolio or position. The methodology extends beyond simple historical analysis, incorporating techniques like Monte Carlo simulation to account for non-linear risk exposures inherent in derivative instruments and the volatile nature of digital assets. Accurate parameterization, particularly volatility surface construction and correlation assumptions, is critical for reliable results. ## What is the Adjustment of Value at Risk Simulation? Adapting Value at Risk models to the unique characteristics of cryptocurrency markets requires specific adjustments, given their 24/7 operation and susceptibility to rapid, unforeseen price swings. Backtesting procedures must account for limited historical data and the potential for structural breaks in market behavior, necessitating stress testing with extreme event scenarios. Consideration of liquidity risk is paramount, as order book depth can significantly impact execution prices during periods of high volatility, influencing the accuracy of risk estimates. Furthermore, incorporating on-chain data and network-specific metrics can refine model inputs and improve predictive capabilities. ## What is the Algorithm of Value at Risk Simulation? The algorithmic foundation of Value at Risk simulation relies on selecting an appropriate risk measure and estimation technique, with variance-covariance and historical simulation being common approaches. For options portfolios, analytical approximations like Greeks are often integrated to assess sensitivity to underlying asset price changes, while Monte Carlo methods are favored for complex derivatives with path-dependent payoffs. Implementation demands efficient computational methods to handle large datasets and complex model structures, particularly in high-frequency trading environments. Continuous model validation and recalibration are essential to maintain accuracy and responsiveness to evolving market dynamics. --- ## [Maximum Extractable Value](https://term.greeks.live/definition/maximum-extractable-value/) The profit obtainable by manipulating transaction ordering, inclusion, or exclusion within a block by validators or bots. ⎊ Definition ## [Maximal Extractable Value](https://term.greeks.live/definition/maximal-extractable-value/) Profit extracted by reordering or censoring transactions within a block beyond standard transaction fees. ⎊ Definition ## [Value Accrual](https://term.greeks.live/definition/value-accrual/) The mechanism by which network usage and protocol revenue translate into increased value for token holders. ⎊ Definition ## [Value-at-Risk](https://term.greeks.live/definition/value-at-risk/) A statistical metric estimating the maximum potential loss of an investment over a set time at a given confidence level. ⎊ Definition ## [Miner Extractable Value](https://term.greeks.live/definition/miner-extractable-value/) Profits gained by validators through the strategic reordering or exclusion of transactions in a block. ⎊ Definition ## [Monte Carlo Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/definition/monte-carlo-simulation/) A computational method using random sampling to simulate potential future price paths and estimate derivative payoffs. ⎊ Definition ## [Conditional Value-at-Risk](https://term.greeks.live/term/conditional-value-at-risk/) Meaning ⎊ Conditional Value-at-Risk measures expected loss beyond a specified threshold, providing a crucial tool for managing tail risk in high-volatility crypto options markets. ⎊ Definition ## [Collateral Value](https://term.greeks.live/definition/collateral-value/) The effective credit-providing value of an asset when used to secure a loan or margin position. ⎊ Definition ## [Extrinsic Value](https://term.greeks.live/definition/extrinsic-value/) The portion of an option price driven by time, volatility, and probability, excluding the immediate intrinsic worth. ⎊ Definition ## [Intrinsic Value](https://term.greeks.live/definition/intrinsic-value/) The calculated fundamental worth of an asset based on utility, revenue, or economic design, independent of market price. ⎊ Definition ## [Time Value](https://term.greeks.live/definition/time-value/) The part of an option's price that reflects the potential for future value before expiration. ⎊ Definition ## [Time Value Decay](https://term.greeks.live/definition/time-value-decay/) The steady erosion of an option premium as it approaches expiration, accelerating significantly in the final days. ⎊ Definition ## [Adversarial Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/term/adversarial-simulation/) Meaning ⎊ Adversarial Simulation in crypto options is a risk methodology that models a protocol's resilience by simulating the actions of rational, profit-maximizing agents seeking to exploit economic incentives. ⎊ Definition ## [Intrinsic Value Calculation](https://term.greeks.live/term/intrinsic-value-calculation/) Meaning ⎊ Intrinsic value calculation determines an option's immediate profit potential by comparing the strike price to the underlying asset price, establishing a minimum price floor for the derivative. ⎊ Definition ## [Value Accrual Mechanisms](https://term.greeks.live/definition/value-accrual-mechanisms/) Economic design choices linking protocol usage and profitability to the market value of the native token. ⎊ Definition ## [Value at Risk Calculation](https://term.greeks.live/term/value-at-risk-calculation/) Meaning ⎊ Value at Risk calculation in crypto options quantifies potential portfolio losses under specific confidence levels, guiding margin requirements and assessing protocol solvency. ⎊ Definition ## [Extreme Value Theory](https://term.greeks.live/definition/extreme-value-theory/) Statistical study of extreme deviations to model the probability and severity of rare, high-impact events. ⎊ Definition ## [Historical Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/definition/historical-simulation/) A risk estimation technique that applies past market data to current positions to forecast potential future outcomes. ⎊ Definition ## [Value Extraction](https://term.greeks.live/definition/value-extraction/) The systematic capture of economic surplus from market inefficiencies, protocol design flaws, or information asymmetries. ⎊ Definition ## [Value Accrual Models](https://term.greeks.live/definition/value-accrual-models/) Frameworks linking protocol economic activity and revenue generation to the appreciation of the native token's value. ⎊ Definition ## [Collateral Value Feedback Loops](https://term.greeks.live/term/collateral-value-feedback-loops/) Meaning ⎊ Collateral Value Feedback Loops describe how a drop in an asset's price reduces collateral value, triggering liquidations that further accelerate the price decline. ⎊ Definition ## [Risk-Free Rate Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/term/risk-free-rate-simulation/) Meaning ⎊ Decentralized Risk-Free Rate Simulation derives a proxy for options pricing by using dynamic stablecoin lending rates from on-chain protocols. ⎊ Definition ## [Stress Testing Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/term/stress-testing-simulation/) Meaning ⎊ Stress testing simulates extreme market events to quantify systemic risk and validate the resilience of crypto derivatives protocols. ⎊ Definition ## [Time Value of Money](https://term.greeks.live/definition/time-value-of-money/) The principle that money available today has greater value than the same amount in the future due to earning potential. ⎊ Definition ## [Market Microstructure Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/definition/market-microstructure-simulation/) Modeling the granular mechanics of asset exchange, including order books and latency, to predict real-world performance. ⎊ Definition ## [Oracle Failure Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/definition/oracle-failure-simulation/) Testing protocol resilience against inaccurate or missing external data feeds provided by blockchain oracles. ⎊ Definition ## [Pre-Trade Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/term/pre-trade-simulation/) Meaning ⎊ Pre-trade simulation in crypto finance models potential trades against adversarial on-chain conditions to quantify systemic risk and optimize strategy parameters. ⎊ Definition ## [Risk Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/definition/risk-simulation/) Using computational models to project portfolio performance and risk exposure across a vast range of hypothetical scenarios. ⎊ Definition ## [Agent Based Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/term/agent-based-simulation/) Meaning ⎊ Agent Based Simulation models market dynamics by simulating individual actors' interactions, offering a powerful method for stress testing decentralized options protocols against systemic risk. ⎊ Definition ## [Market Psychology Simulation](https://term.greeks.live/term/market-psychology-simulation/) Meaning ⎊ Behavioral Feedback Loop Modeling integrates human cognitive biases into quantitative simulations to predict systemic risk and volatility anomalies in crypto derivatives markets. ⎊ Definition --- ## Raw Schema Data ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://term.greeks.live/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Area", "item": "https://term.greeks.live/area/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Value at Risk Simulation", "item": "https://term.greeks.live/area/value-at-risk-simulation/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Resource 1", "item": "https://term.greeks.live/area/value-at-risk-simulation/resource/1/" } ] } ``` ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "FAQPage", "mainEntity": [ { "@type": "Question", "name": "What is the Calculation of Value at Risk Simulation?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Value at Risk simulation, within cryptocurrency, options, and derivatives, quantifies potential loss over a defined time horizon under normal market conditions. 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The central core consists of intricate green and blue components, suggesting a complex engine or power transmission system, encased within a beige inner structure." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/term/value-at-risk-calculation/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/term/value-at-risk-calculation/", "headline": "Value at Risk Calculation", "description": "Meaning ⎊ Value at Risk calculation in crypto options quantifies potential portfolio losses under specific confidence levels, guiding margin requirements and assessing protocol solvency. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-14T10:44:03+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-01-04T13:59:03+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/dynamic-visualization-of-options-contract-state-transition-in-the-money-versus-out-the-money-derivatives-pricing.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A dark, sleek, futuristic object features two embedded spheres: a prominent, brightly illuminated green sphere and a less illuminated, recessed blue sphere. The contrast between these two elements is central to the image composition." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/extreme-value-theory/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/extreme-value-theory/", "headline": "Extreme Value Theory", "description": "Statistical study of extreme deviations to model the probability and severity of rare, high-impact events. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-14T10:44:53+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-04-06T17:17:16+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/visualizing-notional-value-and-order-flow-disruption-in-on-chain-derivatives-liquidity-provision.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "The image shows a detailed cross-section of a thick black pipe-like structure, revealing a bundle of bright green fibers inside. The structure is broken into two sections, with the green fibers spilling out from the exposed ends." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/historical-simulation/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/historical-simulation/", "headline": "Historical Simulation", "description": "A risk estimation technique that applies past market data to current positions to forecast potential future outcomes. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-15T08:50:03+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-04-02T18:22:32+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/visualizing-layered-risk-tranches-and-attack-vectors-within-a-decentralized-finance-protocol-structure.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A sharp-tipped, white object emerges from the center of a layered, concentric ring structure. The rings are primarily dark blue, interspersed with distinct rings of beige, light blue, and bright green." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/value-extraction/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/value-extraction/", "headline": "Value Extraction", "description": "The systematic capture of economic surplus from market inefficiencies, protocol design flaws, or information asymmetries. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-15T08:51:51+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-04-04T00:36:02+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/visualizing-intricate-structured-financial-products-and-automated-market-maker-liquidity-pools-in-decentralized-asset-ecosystems.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "The abstract digital artwork features a complex arrangement of smoothly flowing shapes and spheres in shades of dark blue, light blue, teal, and dark green, set against a dark background. A prominent white sphere and a luminescent green ring add focal points to the intricate structure." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/value-accrual-models/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/value-accrual-models/", "headline": "Value Accrual Models", "description": "Frameworks linking protocol economic activity and revenue generation to the appreciation of the native token's value. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-15T09:02:44+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-04-04T18:59:38+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/complex-layered-blockchain-architecture-visualization-for-layer-2-scaling-solutions-and-defi-collateralization-models.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A sequence of nested, multi-faceted geometric shapes is depicted in a digital rendering. The shapes decrease in size from a broad blue and beige outer structure to a bright green inner layer, culminating in a central dark blue sphere, set against a dark blue background." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/term/collateral-value-feedback-loops/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/term/collateral-value-feedback-loops/", "headline": "Collateral Value Feedback Loops", "description": "Meaning ⎊ Collateral Value Feedback Loops describe how a drop in an asset's price reduces collateral value, triggering liquidations that further accelerate the price decline. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-16T08:18:00+00:00", "dateModified": "2025-12-16T08:18:00+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/an-intricate-defi-derivatives-protocol-structure-safeguarding-underlying-collateralized-assets-within-a-total-value-locked-framework.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A close-up view reveals a complex, porous, dark blue geometric structure with flowing lines. Inside the hollowed framework, a light-colored sphere is partially visible, and a bright green, glowing element protrudes from a large aperture." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/term/risk-free-rate-simulation/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/term/risk-free-rate-simulation/", "headline": "Risk-Free Rate Simulation", "description": "Meaning ⎊ Decentralized Risk-Free Rate Simulation derives a proxy for options pricing by using dynamic stablecoin lending rates from on-chain protocols. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-16T08:39:36+00:00", "dateModified": "2025-12-16T08:39:36+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/decentralized-finance-structured-products-options-contract-time-decay-and-collateralized-risk-assessment-framework-visualization.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A complex abstract visualization features a central mechanism composed of interlocking rings in shades of blue, teal, and beige. The structure extends from a sleek, dark blue form on one end to a time-based hourglass element on the other." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/term/stress-testing-simulation/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/term/stress-testing-simulation/", "headline": "Stress Testing Simulation", "description": "Meaning ⎊ Stress testing simulates extreme market events to quantify systemic risk and validate the resilience of crypto derivatives protocols. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-16T09:08:15+00:00", "dateModified": "2025-12-16T09:08:15+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/decentralized-finance-structured-products-risk-layering-and-asymmetric-alpha-generation-in-volatility-derivatives.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A stylized 3D render displays a dark conical shape with a light-colored central stripe, partially inserted into a dark ring. A bright green component is visible within the ring, creating a visual contrast in color and shape." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/time-value-of-money/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/time-value-of-money/", "headline": "Time Value of Money", "description": "The principle that money available today has greater value than the same amount in the future due to earning potential. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-16T10:39:42+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-03-29T10:00:27+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/decentralized-finance-options-tranches-dynamic-rebalancing-engine-for-automated-risk-stratification.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A series of colorful, layered discs or plates are visible through an opening in a dark blue surface. The discs are stacked side-by-side, exhibiting undulating, non-uniform shapes and colors including dark blue, cream, and bright green." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/market-microstructure-simulation/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/market-microstructure-simulation/", "headline": "Market Microstructure Simulation", "description": "Modeling the granular mechanics of asset exchange, including order books and latency, to predict real-world performance. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-17T09:40:46+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-03-23T08:50:27+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/complex-financial-engineering-of-decentralized-options-contracts-and-tokenomics-in-market-microstructure.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A visually striking four-pointed star object, rendered in a futuristic style, occupies the center. It consists of interlocking dark blue and light beige components, suggesting a complex, multi-layered mechanism set against a blurred background of intersecting blue and green pipes." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/oracle-failure-simulation/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/oracle-failure-simulation/", "headline": "Oracle Failure Simulation", "description": "Testing protocol resilience against inaccurate or missing external data feeds provided by blockchain oracles. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-19T05:06:55+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-04-06T22:04:44+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/a-futuristic-geometric-construct-symbolizing-decentralized-finance-oracle-data-feeds-and-synthetic-asset-risk-management.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A high-tech geometric abstract render depicts a sharp, angular frame in deep blue and light beige, surrounding a central dark blue cylinder. The cylinder's tip features a vibrant green concentric ring structure, creating a stylized sensor-like effect." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/term/pre-trade-simulation/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/term/pre-trade-simulation/", "headline": "Pre-Trade Simulation", "description": "Meaning ⎊ Pre-trade simulation in crypto finance models potential trades against adversarial on-chain conditions to quantify systemic risk and optimize strategy parameters. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-19T05:07:51+00:00", "dateModified": "2025-12-19T05:07:51+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/precision-algorithmic-execution-mechanism-for-decentralized-options-derivatives-high-frequency-trading.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "The image displays a close-up of a high-tech mechanical or robotic component, characterized by its sleek dark blue, teal, and green color scheme. A teal circular element resembling a lens or sensor is central, with the structure tapering to a distinct green V-shaped end piece." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/risk-simulation/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/definition/risk-simulation/", "headline": "Risk Simulation", "description": "Using computational models to project portfolio performance and risk exposure across a vast range of hypothetical scenarios. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-19T08:30:26+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-03-12T05:14:30+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/complex-structured-note-design-incorporating-automated-risk-mitigation-and-dynamic-payoff-structures.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A stylized, high-tech object with a sleek design is shown against a dark blue background. The core element is a teal-green component extending from a layered base, culminating in a bright green glowing lens." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/term/agent-based-simulation/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/term/agent-based-simulation/", "headline": "Agent Based Simulation", "description": "Meaning ⎊ Agent Based Simulation models market dynamics by simulating individual actors' interactions, offering a powerful method for stress testing decentralized options protocols against systemic risk. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-19T09:42:59+00:00", "dateModified": "2025-12-19T09:42:59+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/implied-volatility-pricing-model-simulation-for-decentralized-financial-derivatives-contracts-and-collateralized-assets.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "A close-up view of a complex mechanical mechanism featuring a prominent helical spring centered above a light gray cylindrical component surrounded by dark rings. This component is integrated with other blue and green parts within a larger mechanical structure." } }, { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://term.greeks.live/term/market-psychology-simulation/", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/term/market-psychology-simulation/", "headline": "Market Psychology Simulation", "description": "Meaning ⎊ Behavioral Feedback Loop Modeling integrates human cognitive biases into quantitative simulations to predict systemic risk and volatility anomalies in crypto derivatives markets. ⎊ Definition", "datePublished": "2025-12-19T09:44:16+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-01-04T17:31:14+00:00", "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Greeks.live", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/author/greeks-live/" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/decentralized-finance-automated-market-maker-protocol-structure-and-synthetic-derivative-collateralization-flow.jpg", "width": 3850, "height": 2166, "caption": "The image features stylized abstract mechanical components, primarily in dark blue and black, nestled within a dark, tube-like structure. A prominent green component curves through the center, interacting with a beige/cream piece and other structural elements." } } ], "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://term.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/decentralized-perpetual-options-protocol-collateralization-mechanism-and-automated-liquidity-provision-logic-diagram.jpg" } } ``` --- **Original URL:** https://term.greeks.live/area/value-at-risk-simulation/resource/1/